Multiyear sea ice export through the Bering Strait during winter 2011-2012
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[1] Six ice beacons deployed in the Beaufort Sea during August 2011 tracked the anomalous export of multiyear sea ice from the Chukchi Sea through the Bering Strait to the Bering Sea between November 2011 and May 2012. These are the first observations in 34 years of ice beacon export through the Bering Strait. Using 34 years of passive microwave derived ice motion fields, we find that during 2011–2012 southward ice motion in the Chukchi Sea persisted for a record six of seven months and that sea ice speeds were significantly faster than the long term mean. The combination of increased ice speeds and reduced likelihood of ice arch development through the strait culminated in the record export of 13.5 × 103 km2 of sea ice through the Bering Strait. Monthly sea level pressure fields, dominated by an Aleutian Low and Siberian High, show anomalies in December and January played a role in initiating this event and forced multiyear ice into the southern Chukchi Sea. However, these variations were small and typical of this area, yet we find no evidence of a similar export event in the last 34 years even though the forcing was similar to the climatology. This leads us to attribute this event to a change in the responsiveness of the Arctic ice pack to typical forcing mechanisms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".