Global Capital Flows, Time‐Varying Fundamentals and Transitional Exchange Rate Dynamics
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In this paper, I investigate the effects of cross‐border capital flows induced by the rate of risk‐adjusted excess returns (Sharpe ratio) on the transitional dynamics of the nominal exchange rate's deviation from its fundamental value. For this purpose, a two‐state time‐varying transition probability Markov regime‐switching process is added to the sticky price exchange rate model with shares. I estimated this model using quarterly data on the four most active floating rate currencies for the years 1973–2009: the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and the British pound. The results provide evidence that the Sharpe ratios of debt and equity investments influence the evolution of transitional dynamics of the currencies' deviation from their fundamental values. In addition, I found that the relationship between economic fundamentals and the nominal exchange rates vary depending on the overvaluation or undervaluation of the currencies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it