SYNTHESIS: Life history change in commercially exploited fish stocks: an analysis of trends across studies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Age and size at maturation have declined dramatically in many commercial fish stocks over the past few decades - changes that have been widely attributed to fishing pressure. We performed an analysis of such trends across multiple studies, to test for the consistency of life history changes under fishing, and for their association with the intensity of exploitation (fishing mortality rate). We analyzed 143 time series from 37 commercial fish stocks, the majority of which originated from the North Atlantic. Rates of phenotypic change were calculated for two traditional maturation indices (length and age at 50% maturity), as well as for probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). We found that all three indices declined in heavily exploited populations, and at a rate that was strongly correlated with the intensity of fishing (for length at 50% maturity and PMRNs). These results support previous assertions that fishing pressure is playing a major role in the life history changes observed in commercial fish stocks. Rates of change were as strong for PMRNs as for age and size at 50% maturity, which is consistent with the hypothesis that fishing-induced phenotypic changes can sometimes have a genetic basis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it