Baseline Shape Diffeomorphometry Patterns of Subcortical and Ventricular Structures in Predicting Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a novel predictor for the conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). This predictor is based on the shape diffeomorphometry patterns of subcortical and ventricular structures (left and right amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus, caudate, putamen, globus pallidus, and lateral ventricle) of 607 baseline scans from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database, including a total of 210 healthy control subjects, 222 MCI subjects, and 175 AD subjects. The optimal predictor is obtained via a feature selection procedure applied to all of the 14 sets of shape features via linear discriminant analysis, resulting in a combination of the shape diffeomorphometry patterns of the left hippocampus, the left lateral ventricle, the right thalamus, the right caudate, and the bilateral putamen. Via 10-fold cross-validation, we substantiate our method by successfully differentiating 77.04% (104/135) of the MCI subjects who converted to AD within 36 months and 71.26% (62/87) of the non-converters. To be specific, for the MCI-converters, we are capable of correctly predicting 82.35% (14/17) of subjects converting in 6 months, 77.5% (31/40) of subjects converting in 12 months, 74.07% (20/27) of subjects converting in 18 months, 78.13% (25/32) of subjects converting in 24 months, and 73.68% (14/19) of subject converting in 36 months. Statistically significant correlation maps were observed between the shape diffeomorphometry features of each of the 14 structures, especially the bilateral amygdala, hippocampus, lateral ventricle, and two neuropsychological test scores--the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Behavior Section and the Mini-Mental State Examination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".