Assessing a Scoring System to Predict Disease Activity in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: <i>Post Hoc</i> Analyses of Data from Clinical Trials of Subcutaneous Interferon Beta-1a (P3.178)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the modified Rio score (MRS) can predict future disease activity on subcutaneous (sc) interferon (IFN) beta-1a. BACKGROUND: Early identification of suboptimal responders to initial treatment for relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) allows therapy adjustment. MRS stratifies patients by early disease activity, and can predict later responses in IFN-treated patients. METHODS: Patients with MS who received sc IFN beta-1a (44mcg thrice weekly) in the 96-week REGARD trial, and those with a first clinical demyelinating event who received sc IFN beta-1a in the 24-month REFLEX trial, were included if they had >=1 year on study. MRS at 48 weeks was calculated retrospectively: 0 if <=5 new T2 lesions and 0 relapses; 1 if <=5 new T2 lesions and 1 relapse, or >5 new T2 lesions and 0 relapses; 2 if <=5 new T2 lesions and >=2 relapses, or >5 new T2 lesions and 1 relapse; 3 if >5 new T2 lesions and >=2 relapses. MRS was examined as a predictor of clinical activity-free (CAF; no qualifying relapses or disability progression) and disease activity-free (DAF; no clinical activity, gadolinium-enhancing lesions, or new/enlarging T2 lesions) status at study end. The relation between MRS and time to disability progression was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves analysis and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Of 203 REGARD patients analyzed, 156 (76.8%), 42 (20.7%), and 5 (2.5%) had an MRS of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. At Week 96, 124 patients (61.1%) were CAF and 53 (26.1%) were DAF. Most (121/124; 97.6%) CAF and all DAF patients had an MRS of 0. An MRS of 1 versus 0 increased the risk of disability progression (hazard ratio 2.74; 95% confidence interval 1.36, 5.52). Data from REFLEX will be presented. CONCLUSIONS: The MRS is a reasonable predictor of future disease activity in patients receiving sc IFN beta-1a, and may aid treatment decisions. Study Support: Merck Serono SA Geneva, Switzerland, a subsidiary of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".