Course of illness following prospectively observed mania or hypomania in individuals presenting with unipolar depression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: In a well-defined sample, we sought to determine which clinical variables, some of potential nosological relevance, influence subsequent course following prospectively observed initial episodes of hypomania or mania (H/M). METHODS: We identified 108 individuals in the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study diagnosed with unipolar major depression at intake who subsequently developed H/M. We assessed time to repeat H/M based on whether one had been started on an antidepressant or electroconvulsive therapy within eight weeks of developing H/M, had longer episodes, or had a family history of bipolar disorder. RESULTS: Modeling age of onset, treatment-associated H/M, family history of bipolar disorder, duration of index H/M episode, and psychosis in Cox regression analysis, family history of bipolar disorder (n=21) was strongly associated with repeat episodes of H/M [hazard ratio (HR)=2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-3.83, p=0.03]. Those with treatment-associated episodes (n=12) were less likely to experience subsequent episodes of H/M, although this was not significant in the multivariate model (HR=0.25, 95% CI: 0.06-1.05, p=0.06). These individuals also had a later age of onset for affective illness and were more likely to be depressed. Duration of illness with a temporal resolution of one week, psychosis, and age of onset were not associated with time to repeat H/M episode. CONCLUSIONS: A family history of bipolar disorder influences the course of illness, even after an initial H/M episode. In this select sample, treatment-associated H/M did not appear to convey the same risk for a course of illness characterized by recurrent H/M episodes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".