Suboptimal timing of reproduction in <i>Lobelia inflata</i> may be a conservative bet-hedging strategy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Age and size at reproduction are important components of fitness, and are variable both within and among angiosperm species. The fitness consequences of such life-history variation are most readily studied in organisms that reproduce only once in their lifetime. The timing of the onset of reproduction (bolting) in the monocarpic perennial, Lobelia inflata, occurs over a range of dates within a season, and may be postponed to a later year. Empirical relationships among life-history traits, derived from over 950 wild-growing and experimentally manipulated plants in the field, are used to model an optimal changing size threshold (norm of reaction) for bolting over the growing season. Comparisons are made between observed and expected norms of reaction governing bolting. An apparently suboptimal bolting schedule that precludes bolting beyond an early (conservative) date is observed, and is found to be qualitatively consistent with conservative bet hedging under unpredictable season lengths. On this basis we propose the schedule of bolting as a plausible example of a conservative bet-hedging strategy. The results underscore the critical need for long-term studies of fluctuating selection to distinguish suboptimality from bet hedging.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it