Underestimation of Gleason score at prostate biopsy reflects sampling error in lower volume tumours
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: • To determine the influence of tumour and prostate gland volumes on the underestimation of prostate cancer Gleason score in diagnostic core biopsies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: • Patients undergoing radical prostatectomy with matched diagnostic biopsies were identified from a prospectively recorded database. • Tumour volumes were measured in serial whole-mount sections with image analysis software as part of routine histological assessment. • Differences in various metrics of tumour and prostate volume between upgraded tumours and tumours concordant for the lower or higher grade were analysed. RESULTS: • In all, 684 consecutive patients with Gleason score 6 or 7 prostate cancer on diagnostic biopsy were identified. • Of 298 patients diagnosed with Gleason 6 tumour on biopsy, 201 (67.4%) were upgraded to Gleason 7 or higher on final pathology. Similarly, of 262 patients diagnosed with Gleason 3 + 4 = 7 prostate cancer on initial biopsy, 60 (22.9%) were upgraded to Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7 or higher. • Tumours upgraded from Gleason 6 to 7 had a significantly lower index tumour volume (1.73 vs 2 mL, P= 0.029), higher calculated prostate volume (41.6 vs 39 mL, P= 0.017) and lower relative percentage of tumour to benign glandular tissue (4.3% vs 5.9%, P= 0.001) than tumours concordant for the higher grade. • Similarly, tumours that were Gleason score 3 + 4 on biopsy and upgraded on final pathology to 4 + 3 were significantly smaller as measured by both total tumour volume (2.3 vs 3.3 mL, P= 0.005) and index tumour volume (2.2 vs 3, P= 0.027) and occupied a smaller percentage of the gland volume (6.3% vs 8.9%, P= 0.017) compared with tumours concordant for the higher grade. • On multivariate analysis, lower prostate weight (hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.96-0.99, P < 0.001) and larger total tumour volume (hazard ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.4-2.6, P < 0.001) independently predicted an upgrade in Gleason score from 6 to 7. In tumours upgraded from biopsy Gleason 3 + 4, only higher index tumour volume (hazard ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.01-9.3, P= 0.048) was a significant predictor of upgrading on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: • Under-graded tumours are significantly smaller than tumours concordant for the higher grade, indicating that incomplete tumour sampling plays a significant role in Gleason score assignment error. • Surrogate measures of tumour volume may predict those at greatest risk of Gleason score upgrade.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".