Slowdown in Global Economic Momentum – Asia and the USA To Remain Growth Drivers of World Economy in 2005
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2004, despite the sudden jump in oil prices and the ballooning trade deficit, the U.S. economy grew by 4.4%, or more robustly than ever since 1999. In the same year, growth in consumer prices peaked at 3.3% — the highest level in four years. In early February 2005, the U.S. Fed raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points for the sixth time since mid-2004. Whereas Japan slipped back into a period of recession, other Asian economies continued growing apace in 2004. The second half of the year 2004 saw a slowdown in GDP growth momentum in the euro area. Despite positive stimuli from investments, growth rates declined, due to weaker net exports and still very subdued private consumption demand. Consumer restraint can partly be explained by the sluggish growth in real disposable income as a result of higher energy prices, which are also responsible for the rise in inflation. In the first three quarters of 2004, most new Central European EU Member States expanded at a faster pace than in 2003 as a whole. The upward pressure on prices (partly induced by EU accession) was very strong in the new Member States in 2004. In Romania, an EU candidate country, growth rocketed to an outstanding 10.0% in the third quarter. Following weak growth in the fourth quarter of 2004, Austria's economy is regaining steam, but is not immune to the current slowdown in growth in the euro area as a whole. The OeNB's short-term indicator forecasts 0.4% seasonally adjusted growth in Austria's real GDP for the first and 0.5% for the second quarter of 2005 (each compared with the previous quarter).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".