Assessing the clinical benefit of nuclear matrix protein 22 in the surveillance of patients with nonmuscle‐invasive bladder cancer and negative cytology
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated that abnormal levels of nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22) are associated with bladder cancer and have led to the approval of NMP22 as a urinary biomarker by the US Food and Drug Administration. Nonetheless, the clinical significance of NMP22 remains unclear. The objective of this study was to use decision analysis to determine whether NMP22 improves medical decision-making. METHODS: The current study included 2222 patients who had a history of nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer and current negative cytology. The authors developed models to predict cancer recurrence or progression to muscle-invasive disease using voided NMP22 levels, cystoscopy, age, and sex. Clinical net benefit was calculated by summing the benefits (true-positives), subtracting the harms (false-positives), and weighting these values by the threshold probability at which a patient or clinician would opt for cytoscopy. RESULTS: After cystoscopy, 581 patients (26%) had cancer identified. The NMP22 level was associated significantly with bladder cancer recurrence and progression (P < .001 for both). The use of NMP22 in a model with age and sex was associated with better patient outcomes than performing cystoscopy on everyone and produced threshold probabilities > 8% for recurrence and > 3% for progression. Only offering cystoscopy to those who had a risk > 15% reduced the number of cystoscopies by 229 while missing only 25 cancer recurrences per 1000 men with negative cytology. The current study was limited by its multicenter design. CONCLUSIONS: For clinicians who would perform a cystoscopy at a threshold of 5% for recurrence or 1% for progression, NMP22 did not aid clinical decision-making. For less risk-averse clinicians who would only perform a cystoscopy at a threshold probability >thinsp;8% for recurrence or > 3% for progression, NMP22 helped to indicate which patients required cystoscopy and which could be spared this procedure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".