Does Exposure to Influenza Very Early in Life Affect Mortality Risk during a Subsequent Outbreak? The 1890 and 1918 Pandemics in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two major pandemics of infectious disease include: the 1890 Russian influenza pandemic and the 1918 Spanish pandemic. The lack of attention given to both pandemics may have influenced the theorizing about the stages and progression of the epidemiologic transition. This chapter presents the results of preliminary research into the age distribution of deaths among young adults during the 1918 pandemic. It uses the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis (DOHaD) and concepts of scarring during critical periods of development and original antigenic sin to explain why individuals at this particular age were at heightened risk. The Russian and Spanish influenza pandemics are similar in that they are both described as completely global and reliant on rapid trade and transit for their almost instantaneous spread. Yet, there are two major differences between the 1890 and 1918 pandemics: the case-fatality rate and the age structure of mortality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".