Re-examining the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Rational Expectations Structural VAR Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To explicitly take into account market expectations for real exchange rate fluctuations, this paper proposes a rational expectations structural VAR (RE-SVAR) method to decompose structural shocks. An exogenous shock not only has effects on real exchange rates directly, but also has indirect effects through the change in predictions for other fundamental variables. The RE-SVAR method imposes all these direct and indirect channels to decompose the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the over-identifying restrictions implied by our model cannot be rejected for Canada, France, Italy, and Japan. Our results also indicate that private expenditure shocks are the most important source of real exchange rate variations for France and Italy, monetary shocks are most important for Canada, and foreign price shocks are most important in the long run for Japan. Moreover, supply shocks have a small but significant explanatory power fot real exchange rate variations only in France.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".