Annual survival of Red Knots (<i>Calidris canutus rufa</i>) using the San Antonio Oeste stopover site is reduced by domino effects involving late arrival and food depletion in Delaware Bay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ecological conditions in breeding and non-breeding areas of migrant birds have been linked to their annual survival and production of young, but the role of stopover sites is under-appreciated. Through banding studies and censuses along the flyway from Tierra del Fuego to the Canadian Arctic, the drastic decline in 2000–2001 of Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) population summering in southern South America in the northern winter was shown to be related to the overharvesting of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) in Delaware Bay, USA, their last stopover site before reaching their breeding grounds, and to the late arrival of the birds at this site. In San Antonio Oeste, Argentina, where 25–50% of the Tierra del Fuego Red Knots population congregates every northward migration season, annual survival of the cohort of experienced birds banded in March 1998 was impacted a year later than the general decline. Knots marked at San Antonio Oeste earlier in March arrived in Delaware Bay on average before those marked 15 days later. Additionally, early migrating knots with active body moult in San Antonio Oeste exhibited a higher return rate in the following years than late and non-moulting birds. Since the decline, birds arriving late in Delaware Bay have been at increased risk of not being able to refuel properly or on time because food is no longer superabundant at that stopover site. These domino effects indicate that there are fitness consequences to individual migration strategies adopted by birds at austral summering and stopover sites, which can be amplified by compressed timing in Delaware Bay when food is depleted at this final stopover site.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".