Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Previous work with a simple climate model has suggested a global cooling impact of increasing stratospheric aerosol. Here we use a comprehensive Earth System Model including coupled atmosphere and ocean components to show that increasing stratospheric aerosol since the late 1990s has reduced global warming by at least 0.07 C to present and that a further global cooling impact will occur if the observed stratospheric aerosol trend continues to the end of this decade. This result confirms the previous work and suggests that climate models that do not account for stratospheric aerosol increase will overestimate global warming to a small but notable degree. An additional new finding is that increasing stratospheric aerosol since the late 1990s has reduced the rise in global mean precipitation. Finally, regional patterns of change in simulations with stratospheric aerosol increase to year 2020 show ~40% less equatorial precipitation increase and ~60% greater surface pressure decrease around Antarctica, relative to simulations without such stratospheric aerosol changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".