Вклад «Группы двадцати» в преодоление дисбалансов в мировой экономике (фискальная консолидация)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The article analyzes the G20 contribution to overcoming imbalances of the world economy by implementing the commitment on fiscal consolidation. The commitment which consists of halving state budget deficits by 2013 and stabilizing or reducing state debt ratios by 2016 was made by the advanced G20 member-countries at the Toronto summit in 2010 and reaffirmed at subsequent summits.The analysis of the IMF data and forecasts shows that despite the fact that many countries have already started implementation of their consolidation programs, more efforts are needed in the countries with large state debts (like Italy and Japan) and huge budget deficits (United States). In the middle-term perspective the substantial increase of spending on healthcare and pension system will influence situation in all countries.According to the IMF forecast of April 2012, six G20 developed countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Korea) are on track in implementing the commitment on fiscal consolidation. United Kingdom and United States show partial compliance (state debt component). Japan will not implement the commitment as the situation in this country aggravated after the natural and anthropogenic disaster in 2011.The G20 commitment on fiscal consolidation with specific parameters supplemented relevant national plans with the elements of international coordination, peer pressure and influence from international organizations. But the G20, unlike the European Union, is not able to agree on the measures to stimulate compliance, including the use of sanctions. However, the G20 could promote enforcement of international organizations’ surveillance instruments with tougher indicators to assess the implementation of fiscal consolidation commitments.The publication is prepared within the framework of a joint project “Enhancing Effectiveness of Russia’s Participation in G8, G20 and BRICS in Compliance with the Russian Federation National Priorities in Global Governance and Developing Recommendations for the Russian Presidency of G20 in 2013” implementing by Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and International Organisations Research Institute (IORI) of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” in 2012.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".