How dark is the night: The consumers' mood coping with the crisis. Evidences from isae consumer survey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since 2008 the global economy, following also the financial crisis, is facing a severe decline in economic activity and the economic estimates concerning the first quarter 2009 are even worse. The Italian Consumers Confidence Indicators (CCI), however, after a sharp fall beginning in 2007, is unexpectedly showing some signals of recovery since the end of summer 2008. It seems that the effects of the financial crisis have not influenced Italian consumers yet, as it is documented worldwide. It is worth sorting out this puzzle. The paper tries to explain these trends starting from the role played by the single elements on which the composite indicator of confidence climate is determined. Then the recent price evolution and its influence on the Italian Consumer Confidence dynamics are investigated. Since end of summer 2008, the sharp inflation slowdown together with nominal wages increase, may have contributed to keep confidence from falling. A further tool for explaining recent CCI dynamics could also be represented by a micro-data analysis of opinions of population sub-groups, because some of these could have been more exposed than others to the crisis. Therefore the paper explores reactions of different consumers segments (e.g. by income, professional status, household composition).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".