Vascular Access Surveillance: Case Study of a False Paradigm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The hemodialysis vascular access surveillance controversy provides a case study of how enthusiasm for a new test or treatment can lead to adoption of a false paradigm. Paradigms are the beliefs and assumptions shared by those in a field of knowledge, and are commonly included in clinical practice guidelines. The guidelines of the National Kidney Foundation Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative recommend that arteriovenous vascular accesses undergo routine surveillance for detection and correction of stenosis. This recommendation is based on the paradigm that surveillance of access blood flow or dialysis venous pressure combined with correction of stenosis improves access outcomes. However, the quality of evidence that supports this paradigm has been widely criticized. We tested the validity of the surveillance paradigm by applying World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for evaluating screening tests to a literature review of published vascular access studies. These criteria include four components: undesired condition, screening test, intervention, and desired outcome. The WHO criteria show that surveillance as currently practiced fails all four components and provides little or no significant benefit, suggesting that surveillance is a false paradigm. Once a paradigm is established, however, challenges to its validity are usually resisted even as new evidence indicates the paradigm is not valid. Thus, it is paramount to apply rigorous criteria when developing guidelines. Regulators may help promote needed changes in paradigms when cost and safety considerations coincide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.044 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.010 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".