Trade Performance and Potential of the Philippines: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study was conducted to investigate the issue of what Philippine merchandise trade flows would be if countries operated at the frontier of the gravity model. The study sought to estimate the coefficients of the gravity model. The estimated coefficients were used to estimate merchandise export potentials and technical efficiency of each country in the sample and these were also aggregated to measure impact of country groups, RTAs and inter-regional trading agreements. Result of the study shows that technical efficiency for all sample countries is relatively large with standard deviation from the mean of 35.02% suggesting that the frontier is not so distant. The most efficient countries in the sample which recorded more than 90% efficiency were Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Singapore, Denmark, Hongkong, Sweden and UK. In terms of country groups, RTA and Inter-regional trading agreements, APEC recorded as the most efficient trade agreement of the Philippines. The Philippines was also able to established strong link among countries in East Asia, members of AFTA. ASEAN and EU posed export potential. In a country level, China and members of the ASEAN such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia posed the highest export potential for merchandise exports. The significant determinants of these potentials are the expanding market of developing economies and lower trade cost. Then dominance of APEC countries in trade efficiency was verified by the result of the trade inefficiency effect model. Factors reducing technical inefficiencies were membership to APEC, reduction of corruption, and freer business environment. Membership to ASEAN and WTO turns out insignificant in reducing trade inefficiencies of the Philippine exports to member countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".