Bibliographic record
Abstract
Historically, birth rates in Alberta have followed closely the trajectory of change experienced by the other Canadian provinces. Its total fertility rate fell during the low point of the 1930s; it increased during the post-War baby boom in the 1950s and sixties, and thereafter fell to subreplacement levels beginning in the mid 1970s. In recent years, especially since the early 2000s, the birth rate in Alberta has unexpectedly increased, such that by 2007, it had reached 1.90 children per woman - not far from the 2.1 level needed for generational replacement in the long term. During this same period both national and provincial fertility rates fluctuated at levels below those of Alberta (except Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose rates have been higher). In this study, I examine the historical pattern of fertility change in Alberta, noting similarities and differences with the other provinces. I then look at the association of selected macro level factors (marriage, unemployment, wages, female labour force participation) with change in total and parity-specific birth rates between 1997 and 2007, a period of unprecedented economic growth in Alberta. The statistical results show that although marriage is not significantly correlated with change in fertility rates, male and female wages and female labour force participation all show associations consistent with a procyclical interpretation of fertility change - that is, periods of economic growth are conducive to fertility increase whereas bad economic times are associated with reduced fertility.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".