Relating spatial and temporal scales of climate and ocean variability to survival of Pacific Northwest Chinook salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</i>)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Pacific Northwest Chinook, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , have exhibited a high degree of variability in smolt‐to‐adult survival over the past three decades. This variability is summarized for 22 Pacific Northwest stocks and analyzed using generalized linear modeling techniques. Results indicate that survival can be grouped into eight distinct regional clusters: (1) Alaska, Northern BC and North Georgia Strait; (2) Georgia Strait; (3) Lower Fraser River and West Coast Vancouver Island; (4) Puget Sound and Hood Canal; (5) Lower Columbia Tules; (6) Columbia Upriver Brights, Willamette and Cowlitz; (7) Oregon and Washington Coastal; and (8) Klamath River and Columbia River Summers. Further analysis for stocks within each of the eight regions indicates that local ocean conditions following the outmigration of smolts from freshwater to marine areas had a significant effect on survival for the majority of the stock groups analyzed. Our analyses of the data indicate that Pacific Northwest Chinook survival covaries on a spatial scale of 350–450 km. Lagged time series models are presented that link large‐scale tropical Pacific conditions, intermediate‐basin scale northeastern Pacific conditions, and local sea surface temperatures to survival of Pacific Northwest stocks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".