Bayesian inversion of microtremor array dispersion data in southwestern British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper applies Bayesian inversion, with evaluation of data errors and model parametrization, to produce the most-probable shear-wave velocity profile together with quantitative uncertainty estimates from microtremor array dispersion data. Generally, the most important property for characterizing earthquake site response is the shear-wave velocity (VS) profile. The microtremor array method determines phase velocity dispersion of Rayleigh surface waves from multi-instrument recordings of urban noise. Inversion of dispersion curves for VS structure is a non-unique and non-linear problem such that meaningful evaluation of confidence intervals is required. Quantitative uncertainty estimation requires not only a non-linear inversion approach that samples models proportional to their probability, but also rigorous estimation of the data error statistics and an appropriate model parametrization. This paper applies a Bayesian formulation that represents the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the posterior probability density (PPD) of the geophysical model parameters. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are used with an efficient implementation of Metropolis-Hastings sampling to provide an unbiased sample from the PPD to compute parameter uncertainties and inter-relationships. Nonparametric estimation of a data error covariance matrix from residual analysis is applied with rigorous a posteriori statistical tests to validate the covariance estimate and the assumption of a Gaussian error distribution. The most appropriate model parametrization is determined using the Bayesian information criterion, which provides the simplest model consistent with the resolving power of the data. Parametrizations considered vary in the number of layers, and include layers with uniform, linear and power-law gradients. Parameter uncertainties are found to be underestimated when data error correlations are neglected and when compressional-wave velocity and/or density (nuisance) parameters are fixed in the inversion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".