Go big or go home: impact of screening coverage on syphilis infection dynamics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Syphilis outbreaks in urban men who have sex with men (MSM) are an ongoing public health challenge in many high-income countries, despite intensification of efforts to screen and treat at-risk individuals. We sought to understand how population-level coverage of asymptomatic screening impacts the ability to control syphilis transmission. METHODS: We developed a risk-structured deterministic compartmental mathematical model of syphilis transmission in a population of sexually active MSM. We assumed a baseline level of treatment of syphilis cases due to seeking medical care in all scenarios. We evaluated the impact of sustained annual population-wide screening coverage ranging from 0% to 90% on syphilis incidence over the short term (20 years) and at endemic equilibrium. RESULTS: The relationship between screening coverage and equilibrium syphilis incidence displayed an inverted U-shape relationship, with peak equilibrium incidence occurring with 20-30% annual screening coverage. Annual screening of 62% of the population was required for local elimination (incidence <1 case per 100 000 population). Results were qualitatively similar in the face of differing programmatic, behavioural and natural history assumptions, although the screening thresholds for local elimination differed. With 6-monthly or 3-monthly screening, the population coverage required to achieve local elimination was reduced to 39% or 23%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although screening has the potential to control syphilis outbreaks, suboptimal coverage may paradoxically lead to a higher equilibrium infection incidence than that observed in the absence of intervention. Suboptimal screening programme design should be considered as a possible contributor to unsuccessful syphilis control programmes in the context of the current epidemic.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it