The Life Cycle of Bare Branch Families in China: A Simulation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
China is and will be characterized by a large number of men who are unable to marry: these men are often referred to as "bare branches." In this paper we define the bare branch family and divide its life cycle into three stages: the unmarried co-resident with both parents, co-resident with a surviving parent, and living alone. Using life tables and probability methods, we find that up to age 60, the bare branch male faces cumulative probabilities of 0.8 and 0.6, for his father's and mother's death, respectively. The definition of the age at which bare branch status is initialized influences the length of these stages. As the childbearing age of parents increases, the age of a bare branch at the death of his parents decreases, and the duration of his living alone lengthens. An increase in the mother's childbearing age, holding that of the father constant, shortens the stage of co-residence with both parents, and lengthens the stage of living alone.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".