Revisiting arthritis prevalence projections--it's more than just the aging of the population.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Data for successive population surveys show there is a sustained increase in the prevalence of arthritis, surpassing projected estimates. We examined whether the often-made assumption of stability in age/sex-specific arthritis point-prevalence estimates when estimating future burden is upheld; we used nearly a decade of survey data, and computed new projections for arthritis prevalence in Canada, taking into account past changes in age/sex-specific prevalence estimates and anticipated changes in the age/sex structure of the population. The prevalence from 1994 to 2003, overall and by age and sex, was documented. METHODS: Analyses were based on persons aged 15+ years from 3 cycles of the National Population Health Survey (1994-99; n > 14,000) and 2 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000-03; n > 130,000). Two projection scenarios were adopted to estimate future burden. RESULTS: Stability in age/sex point-prevalence estimates was not observed. From 1994 to 2003, absolute and relative increases were greatest in the older age groups (55+ yrs) and younger age groups (25-54 yrs), respectively. By 2021, we anticipate the prevalence of arthritis in Canada will have increased to between 21% and 26%. Overall, the prevalence increased from 13.4% to 17.6% from 1994 to 2003, an increase of nearly 50% in the number of Canadians reporting arthritis. CONCLUSION: The assumption of stable age/sex prevalence estimates over time does not hold in Canada. Past projections have underestimated future burden; past trends need to be considered.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".