Carbon‐cycle feedbacks of changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under future atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An Earth System model of intermediate complexity is used to quantify the effects of potential reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ranging from a weakening to a complete shutdown, on future uptake of excess CO 2 by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere. Circulation changes significantly reduce oceanic CO 2 uptake, with the largest effects occurring under a complete shutdown. The reduction in uptake is caused to a large extent by a decline in marine export of organic particulate matter. On land, soil carbon increases because of reduced soil respiration in the mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This gain is partially compensated by loss of vegetation carbon associated with reduced primary production in the northern high latitudes due to a cooler and dryer climate. Altogether, these processes act to modestly enhance CO 2 concentration levels in the atmosphere, thereby leading to a small positive feedback. The rise in atmospheric CO 2 ranges from 13 ppm to 34 ppm in 2500, depending on the amount of AMOC weakening, the magnitude of the anthropogenic CO 2 perturbation, and the future CO 2 fertilization effect.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".