Reconstructed drought variability in southeastern Sweden since the 1650s
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In this study, we present the first regional reconstruction of summer drought for southeastern Sweden. The June–July standardized precipitation index (SPI) was reconstructed over the period 1650–2002 based on Pinus sylvestris L. tree‐ring width data, where the reconstruction could account for 41.6% of the total variance in the instrumental record over 1901–2002. Our reconstruction suggests an overall wet 18th century and a dry 19th century. The most outstanding pluvial phase in the pre‐instrumental period took place in the mid‐1720s and lasted over 50 years, while multi‐decadal periods of below average moisture conditions were reconstructed in the 1660s–1720s, 1800s‐early 30s, and in the 1840s–50s. Several of these dry spells have previously been found in reconstructions from Sweden and Finland, indicating that our reconstruction reflects large‐scale moisture anomalies across eastern Fennoscandia. Comparison of the SPI estimates with mid‐tropospheric pressure patterns suggests that summertime drought is associated with positive pressure anomalies over British Isles and the North Sea, while an eastward movement of the Icelandic low‐pressure systems over the western part of central Fennoscandia results in wetter than normal June–July conditions over the region of interest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".