Quantification of the Early Risk of Death in Elderly Kidney Transplant Recipients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To inform decision making regarding transplantation in patients ≥ 65 years, we quantified the early posttransplant risk of death by determining the time to equal risk and equal survival between transplant recipients and wait-listed dialysis patients in the United States between 1995 and 2007 (total n = 25 468). Survival was determined using separate multivariate nonproportional hazards analyses in low-, intermediate- and high-risk cardiovascular risk patients. Compared to wait-listed patients with similar cardiovascular risk, standard criteria (SCD) and expanded criteria (ECD) recipients had a higher risk of death in the perioperative and early-posttransplant period. In contrast, low and intermediate risk living donor (LD) recipients had an immediate survival advantage compared to similar risk wait-listed patients. In all risk groups, transplantation was associated with a long-term survival advantage compared to dialysis, but there were marked differences in time to equal risk of death, and time to equal survival by donor type. For example, survival in high-risk recipients of an LD, SCD and ECD transplant became equal to that in similar risk wait-listed patients 130, 368 and 521 days after transplantation. Early posttransplant mortality risk is eliminated in low- and intermediate-risk patients, and markedly reduced in high-risk patients with LD transplantation. To inform decision making regarding transplantation in patients ≥ 65 years, we quantified the early posttransplant risk of death by determining the time to equal risk and equal survival between transplant recipients and wait-listed dialysis patients in the United States between 1995 and 2007 (total n = 25 468). Survival was determined using separate multivariate nonproportional hazards analyses in low-, intermediate- and high-risk cardiovascular risk patients. Compared to wait-listed patients with similar cardiovascular risk, standard criteria (SCD) and expanded criteria (ECD) recipients had a higher risk of death in the perioperative and early-posttransplant period. In contrast, low and intermediate risk living donor (LD) recipients had an immediate survival advantage compared to similar risk wait-listed patients. In all risk groups, transplantation was associated with a long-term survival advantage compared to dialysis, but there were marked differences in time to equal risk of death, and time to equal survival by donor type. For example, survival in high-risk recipients of an LD, SCD and ECD transplant became equal to that in similar risk wait-listed patients 130, 368 and 521 days after transplantation. Early posttransplant mortality risk is eliminated in low- and intermediate-risk patients, and markedly reduced in high-risk patients with LD transplantation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".