Six months later: Are MPAA's tobacco ratings protecting movie audiences?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the six months (May 10-November 10, 2007) since the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) announced that all smoking would be a factor in movie ratings, there has been no substantial change in the percentage of movies with smoking, across rating categories; in the number of tobacco incidents in these films; nor in the estimated tobacco impressions delivered to audiences in movie theaters, compared to the same period in four previous years.Percentage of movies with smoking: Of the movies that achieved “Top Ten” box office ranking for at least a week, released in the six months after the MPAA’s announcement, 65 percent (51/78) featured tobacco including:• 39 percent of G and PG movies (7/18)• 65 percent of PG-13 movies (20/31)• 83 percent of R-rated movies (24/29).The majority (53%, 27/51) of top box office movies with smoking released May 10-November 10, 2007, were youth-rated.Number of tobacco incidentsContent analysis of the May 10-November 10, 2007, top box office movie sample finds no substantial difference (i.e., none beyond random year-to-year fluctuation) compared to the previous four years in the number of tobacco incidents in movies, in any rating category.Impact on theater audiencesThe total number of tobacco impressions delivered by movies with tobacco imagery showed no substantial change since the MPAA policy announcement, compared to the same period in earlier years.MPAA’s use of tobacco descriptorsData from weekly MPAA bulletins, which announce the ratings of films as they are awarded, indicate that eleven of the twenty-seven youthrated, top box office movies with smoking released to theaters in this survey period completed the MPAA rating process after May 10; none of these films received a tobacco descriptor.After its May 10 announcement, the MPAA gave tobacco descriptors to eleven films released during the survey period by independent distributors (non-MPAA members) and to three such films from MPAA member companies; all fourteen of these films were given limited theatrical release or went directly to video. No films containing smoking that were rated after May 10 and then released nationally received tobacco descriptors. The eleven top box office films with smoking assigned a G, PG and PG-13 rating after May 10, but given no tobacco descriptors, have delivered an estimated three billion tobacco impressions to theater audiences in the U.S. and Canada.ConclusionBecause ratings are awarded after a film has been completed and the MPAA announced last May that its policy was put into immediate effect, sufficient time has passed to observe any meaningful changes in tobacco exposures from youth-rated films. The lack of discernible change indicates that the MPAA’s approach is a failure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".