The Punctual Bufflehead, <em>Bucephala albeola</em>: Autumn Arrivals in Shoal Harbour Sanctuary, Vancouver Island, in Relation to Freeze-up
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Buffleheads are punctual in their return to wintering grounds on the Pacific coast. First arrivals appeared in Shoal Harbour Migratory Bird Sanctuary, southeastern Vancouver Island, on the 288th day of the year on average (± S.D. 2.3; n = 10), that is, 15 October. This vanguard preceded the first peak influx by about 15–20 days, and a second influx by about 24–26 days. First arrivals usually appeared by mid-morning, and included singles (females on two occasions) and small flocks of up to eight. First arrivals may represent a photoperiodic threshold, whereas subsequent peak influxes represent climatic thresholds associated with freeze-up. The phenology of Bufflehead autumn migrations is a good proxy indicator of the advance of the zero degree isotherm, and thus of climatic variability. The timing of their autumn migrations does not appear to have changed in the last half of the twentieth century, consistent with evidence that freeze-up has not advanced. Monitoring of their migrations, in conjunction with shore-based observations of freeze-up, would validate one-dimensional thermodynamic models of freeze-up, and provide a more ecologically meaningful index of climate change, at minimal cost.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".