Forecasting the deployment of short-rotation intensive culture of willow or hybrid poplar: Insights from a Delphi study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Short-rotation intensive culture (SRIC) of willow (Salix spp.) or hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) is currently at a precommercial stage with a potential to be applied economically across important areas to produce lignocellulosic biomass and environmental services in Canada. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted among 50 experts to assess the future deployment of SRIC in this country. The total area in 10 years (2011 base year) was forecasted as 1330, 4100, and 11 400 ha under pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. The deployment of SRIC in the next decade depends mainly on the development of the demand for SRIC biomass and services, that of production technologies, and the establishment of policies and programs promoting its application. In the short term, research and development (R&D) and policy initiatives should be funded or implemented by various stakeholders to facilitate the deployment of the system. On average, respondents deemed that the potential for long-term (20 years) deployment of SRIC in Canada was good. Some of the conclusions and the methodological approach of this study could apply to short-rotation woody crop systems and to agroforestry systems in Canada and elsewhere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".