Coordinated ionospheric observations indicating coupling between preonset flow bursts and waves that lead to substorm onset
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A critical, long‐standing problem in substorm research is identification of the sequence of events leading to substorm expansion phase onset. Recent Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) all‐sky imager (ASI) array observations have shown a repeatable preonset sequence, which is initiated by a poleward boundary intensification (PBI) and is followed by auroral streamers moving equatorward (earthward flow in the plasma sheet) and then by substorm onset. On the other hand, substorm onset is also preceded by azimuthally propagating waves, indicating a possible importance of wave instability for triggering substorm onset. However, it has been difficult to identify the link between fast flows and waves. We have found an isolated substorm event that was well instrumented with the Poker Flat incoherent scatter radar (PFISR), THEMIS white‐light ASI, and multispectral ASI, where the auroral onset occurred within the PFISR and ASI fields of view. This substorm onset was preceded by a PBI, and ionospheric flows propagated equatorward from the polar cap, crossed the PBI, and reached the growth phase arc. This sequence provides evidence that flows from open magnetic field lines propagate across the open‐closed boundary and reach the near‐Earth plasma sheet prior to the onset. Quasi‐stable oscillations in auroral luminosity and ionospheric density are found along the growth phase arc. These preonset auroral waves amplified abruptly at the onset time, soon after the equatorward flows reached the onset region. This sequence suggests a coupling process where preexisting stable waves in the near‐Earth plasma sheet interact with flows from farther downtail and then evolve to onset instability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".