Institution‐specific risk of papillary thyroid carcinoma in atypia/follicular lesion of undetermined significance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (BSRTC) is used in surgical decision-making according to malignancy risk in each category. Malignancy risk in atypia/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) is estimated in BSRTC to be 5% to 15%, but institutional data have varied widely. METHODS: We conducted a post-BSRTC 4-year retrospective analysis of index thyroid nodule cytology and histopathology in an academic head and neck endocrine surgery setting. RESULTS: Of 2939 thyroid cytology reports from 1944 patients, the most advanced BSRTC category was AUS/FLUS in 233 patients (12.0%) of which 187 went to thyroidectomy. In AUS/FLUS, the upper and lower boundary estimates of the malignancy rate were 46% and 37%, accordingly. The malignancy rate did not vary significantly by cytopathologist or cytopathologic features. CONCLUSION: Malignancy rates in AUS/FLUS vary by institution from 6% to 46%. Given the subjective nature of thyroid cytopathology and interpretation of the BSRTC categories, guidelines should encourage the use of institution-specific data on malignancy risk in treatment decisions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E1210-E1215, 2016.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".