Spatial heterogeneity of sea surface temperature trends in the Gulf of Alaska
Bibliographic record
Abstract
State‐space models were used to derive non‐parametric sea surface temperature (SST) trends from 26 locations in and around the Gulf of Alaska for the period 1950–97. The SST trends reflect important large‐scale climate impacts associated with El Niño events and regime shifts, but also reveal significant spatial heterogeneity across the region. The SST trends cluster into five distinct regions that define a robust zonal and meridional asymmetry. The meridional differences reflect the relative impact of El Niño events, while the zonal differences reflect variations in the timing and amplitude of a region‐wide post‐1970 warming trend. The 1976 regime shift is evident primarily as an accelerated warming in the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. The climate signals identified in the SST series are of sufficient magnitude and duration that they could potentially foster changes in lower trophic productivity and structure, which could lead to a broader ecosystem reorganization. Regional differences in Steller sea lion population trends may have resulted from a spatially heterogeneous upper‐ocean response to large‐scale climate variability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".