Assessing Middle Eastern trajectories: Egypt after Mubarak
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article assesses Egypt's chances of democratization. A parallel is drawn between the processes of civil society mobilization that led to the overthrow of the authoritarian regimes of Zhan Videnov in Bulgaria and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. In the latter case, democratic, secular civil society has to compete with the larger, better organized and more efficient Islamic civil society. The internal dynamics of the Muslim Brotherhood, secular civil society, Egyptian military and international factors will probably moderate Islamist trends. However, this moderation does not necessarily imply genuine democratization. More likely, the future Egyptian regime will be a hybrid one accommodating both Islamist and democratic systems of values within a relatively stable and balanced political construct. Keywords: EgyptBulgariacivil societyIslamismdemocratization Acknowledgements The author is grateful to an anonymous reviewer for his/her helpful suggestions. Notes Freedom House uses a one-to-seven scale, with one representing the highest degree of freedom and seven the lowest. 3.0 is the limit for 'partly free' states and 5.5 for 'not free' ones (for further details see Freedom House Citation2010a). Additional informationNotes on contributorsTheodor Tudoroiu Dr Theodor Tudoroiu is an Associate Researcher at the Montreal Centre for International Peace and Security Studies. He works mainly on subjects related to authoritarian regimes and democratization.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it