Stratospheric “wave hole” and interannual variations of the stratospheric circulation in late winter
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using the monthly mean NCEP dataset, the analysis of the upward and downward propagation of planetary waves was conducted by means of the three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes in the stratosphere. It is shown that the upward/downward EP fluxes are observed in different regions of the atmosphere: their well- known upward propagation takes place over North Eurasia, while the downward one revealed over North Atlantic and Canada in a region of the so-called stratospheric “wave hole”. Generation of the downward wave signal may be associated with a reflection of planetary waves in the upper stratosphere. It is shown that the downward EP flux responsible for the sink of eddy energy from the stratosphere to the troposphere is important in late winter (January-February) for an understanding of the stra- tosphere-troposphere coupling on the interannual and decadal timescales, in particular the 11-year solar cycle influence on the stratosphere. Results presented can explain the unusual behavior of a few winters in the Arctic stratosphere, which are outlier from the known Labitzke, van Loon’s correlations of stratospheric parameters with the 11-year solar cycle under separation in the west/east phases of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it