New methodology for Ozone Depletion Potentials of short‐lived compounds: n‐Propyl bromide as an example
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A number of the compounds proposed as replacements for substances controlled under the Montreal Protocol have extremely short atmospheric lifetimes, on the order of days to a few months. An important example is n‐propyl bromide (also referred to as 1‐bromopropane, CH2BrCH2CH3 or simplified as 1‐C3H7Br or nPB). This compound, useful as a solvent, has an atmospheric lifetime of less than 20 days due to its reaction with hydroxyl. Because nPB contains bromine, any amount reaching the stratosphere has the potential to affect concentrations of stratospheric ozone. The definition of Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODP) needs to be modified for such short‐lived compounds to account for the location and timing of emissions. It is not adequate to treat these chemicals as if they were uniformly emitted at all latitudes and longitudes as normally done for longer‐lived gases. Thus, for short‐lived compounds, policymakers will need a table of ODP values instead of the single value generally provided in past studies. This study uses the MOZART2 three‐dimensional chemical‐transport model in combination with studies with our less computationally expensive two‐dimensional model to examine potential effects of nPB on stratospheric ozone. Multiple facets of this study examine key questions regarding the amount of bromine reaching the stratosphere following emission of nPB. Our most significant findings from this study for the purposes of short‐lived replacement compound ozone effects are summarized as follows. The degradation of nPB produces a significant quantity of bromoacetone which increases the amount of bromine transported to the stratosphere due to nPB. However, much of that effect is not due to bromoacetone itself, but instead to inorganic bromine which is produced from tropospheric oxidation of nPB, bromoacetone, and other degradation products and is transported above the dry and wet deposition processes of the model. The MOZART2 nPB results indicate a minimal correction of the two‐dimensional results in order to derive our final results: an nPB chemical lifetime of 19 days and an Ozone Depletion Potential range of 0.033 to 0.040 for assumed global emissions over landmasses, 19 days and 0.021 to 0.028, respectively, for assumed emissions in the industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and 9 days and 0.087 to 0.105, respectively, for assumed emission in tropical Southeast Asia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".