Heat wave frequency variability over North America: Two distinct leading modes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seasonal prediction of heat wave variability is a scientific challenge and of practical importance. This study investigates the heat wave frequency (HWF) variability over North America (NA) during the past 53 summers (1958–2010). It is found that the NA HWF is dominated by two distinct modes: the interdecadal (ID) mode and the interannual (IA) mode. The ID mode primarily depicts a HWF increasing pattern over most of the NA continent except some western coastal areas. The IA mode resembles a tripole HWF anomaly pattern with three centers over the northwestern, central, and southern NA. The two leading modes have different dynamic structures and predictability sources. The ID mode is closely associated with the prior spring sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Atlantic and tropical western Pacific that can persist throughout the summer, whereas the IA mode is linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A simplified general circulation model is utilized to examine the possible physical mechanism. For the ID mode the tropical Atlantic SSTA can induce a Gill‐type response which extends to NA, while the northwestern Pacific SSTA excites a Rossby wave train propagating eastward toward NA. These two flow patterns jointly contribute to the formation of the large‐scale circulation anomalies associated with the ID mode. For the IA mode the corresponding circulation anomalies are basically similar to a Pacific‐North America pattern. The subsidence associated with high‐pressure anomalies warms and dries the boundary layer, inhibiting cloud formation. The resulting surface radiative heating further warms the surface. For the low‐pressure anomalies the situation is just opposite. Through such processes these SSTAs can exert profound influences on the HWF variability over NA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".