APOE Genotype, Vascular Risk Factors, Memory Test Performance and the Five-Year Risk of Vascular Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The APOE epsilon4 gene and poor memory test performance have each been associated with an increased risk of developing dementia, but the relationship between these risk factors in predicting dementia is unclear. We examined the multivariate effects of APOE genotype, memory test performance and vascular risk factors in predicting incident Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. Delayed free recall was measured by the Buschke Cued Recall Test (BCRT). The study sample included 223 people who were identified as having no cognitive impairment (NCI) and either APOE epsilon3/epsilon3 or epsilon3/epsilon4 genotypes at the baseline clinical assessment. After 5 years, 182 (82%) still had NCI, 21 developed VCI (9%) and 20 AD (9%). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that APOE epsilon4 increased the risk of AD (OR, 3.48; CI, 1.15-10.48) but not VCI (OR, 0.89; CI, 0.24-3.27). Vascular risk factors increased the risk of VCI (OR, 2.18; CI, 1.36-3.51) but not AD (OR, 0.68; CI, 0.38-1.20). Lower BCRT scores conferred an increased risk of both VCI (OR, 1.75; CI, 1.27-2.42) and AD (OR, 1.86; CI, 1.29-2.67) but attenuated the APOE epsilon4 effect in AD. VCI and AD have different risk profiles and outcomes, but subtle memory difficulties may be an early feature of both.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".