Longitudinal concordance for clinical characteristics in a Swedish-Danish twin population with inflammatory bowel disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The genetic influence on disease course in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) remains unknown. We therefore aimed to study longitudinal concordance for clinical characteristics and longitudinal stability using the Montreal Classification in an IBD twin population. METHODS: A total of 158 twins with ulcerative colitis (UC) (18 belonging to 9 concordant monozygotic pairs) and 141 twins with Crohn's disease (CD) (34 belonging to 17 concordant monozygotic pairs) were enrolled. Medical notes were scrutinized for clinical characteristics at diagnosis and after 10 years. Using the binominal distribution, we tested the hypothesis that clinical characteristics were independent within individuals in disease concordant monozygotic pairs. RESULTS: In CD, location was identical in 11/17 monozygotic concordant pairs at diagnosis (P = 0.008) and in 11/16 pairs after 10 years (P = 0.02). Behavior at diagnosis was identical in 13/17 pairs (P = 0.03) and in 11/16 pairs after 10 years (P = 0.01). Monozygotic UC twins were concordant (within 5 years) for age at diagnosis (6/9 pairs; P < 0.001) and symptomatic onset (4/9 pairs; P = 0.02) but not for extent of disease at diagnosis or after 10 years. The Montreal Classification did not demonstrate longitudinal stability, either regarding location or behavior of CD or extent of UC. CONCLUSIONS: The high phenotypic concordance, both at diagnosis and longitudinally, in monozygotic twins with CD supports a genetic influence not only on disease occurrence but also on disease course. This contrasts with UC, where the genetic impact appears less. Montreal Classification characteristics changed over time and should be used cautiously.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".