A Bounded Influence Regression Estimator Based on the Statistics of the Hat Matrix
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Many geophysical regression problems require the analysis of large (more than 104 values) data sets, and, because the data may represent mixtures of concurrent natural processes with widely varying statistical properties, contamination of both response and predictor variables is common. Existing bounded influence or high breakdown point estimators frequently lack the ability to eliminate extremely influential data and/or the computational efficiency to handle large data sets. A new bounded influence estimator is proposed that combines high asymptotic efficiency for normal data, high breakdown point behaviour with contaminated data and computational simplicity for large data sets. The algorithm combines a standard M-estimator to downweight data corresponding to extreme regression residuals and removal of overly influential predictor values (leverage points) on the basis of the statistics of the hat matrix diagonal elements. For this, the exact distribution of the hat matrix diagonal elements pii for complex multivariate Gaussian predictor data is shown to be β(pii, m, N−m), where N is the number of data and m is the number of parameters. Real geophysical data from an auroral zone magnetotelluric study which exhibit severe outlier and leverage point contamination are used to illustrate the estimator’s performance. The examples also demonstrate the utility of looking at both the residual and the hat matrix distributions through quantile–quantile plots to diagnose robust regression problems.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it