Aggregate Load Forecast with Payback Model of the Electric Water Heaters for a Direct Load Control Program
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Domestic electric water heaters (DEWH) hold a large share of residential load in North America. The aggregated load profile of electric water heaters follows a similar pattern to the total household load profile, which means that changing the profile of DEWH load can significantly change the shape of the aggregated load profile. To change the load profile, the controller requires an estimation of future load profile and the payback effect of the control action on the forecasted load. This paper presents a load forecast module that uses a Kalman filtered neural network to forecast the aggregated controllable load combined with a statistical payback model to identify the impact of the control action on the load forecast. The proposed method was used by the University of New Brunswick as part of a pilot project named Power Shift Atlantic that aims to provide more than 11MW of ancillary services by controlling more than 1200 controllable loads. The experimental results on the real pilot project shows that the forecast method can be adapted with the dynamic behaviour of the customers. The payback model was also verified by applying various control signals on the pilot project.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".