Validity of prepartum changes in vaginal and rectal temperature to predict calving in dairy cows
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The prevalence of dystocia is high in many dairy herds and is associated with stillbirth and negative effects for the cow. An accurate predictor of calving would enable supervision of cows more precisely to a relevant time interval so that obstetrical assistance can be provided in a timely manner. This might help to decrease calf mortality rate. Evidence exists that cows exhibit a decrease in body temperature before the onset of calving. The performance of a decrease in body temperature as a test to predict the onset of calving in dairy cows has not been investigated. The objective was to investigate test criteria of a decrease in vaginal and rectal temperature as predictors of calving in dairy cows. In 3 experiments, temperature loggers (Minilog 8, Vemco Ltd., Halifax, Canada) were inserted into the vagina of cows before calving (n = 85), and rectal temperatures were measured twice daily in 55 of these cows. Vaginal temperatures were 0.2 to 0.3 °C and 0.6 to 0.7 °C lower on the day of calving compared with 24 and 48 h before calving, respectively. Rectal temperatures were 0.3 to 0.5 °C and 0.4 to 0.6 °C lower on the day of calving compared with 24 and 48 h before calving, respectively. Vaginal temperatures exhibited a diurnal rhythm during the 120 h before calving, which continued on a lower level during the 48 h preceding parturition. In the 3 experiments, a decrease in vaginal temperature of ≥ 0.3 °C over 24h could predict calving within 24h, with sensitivity ranging from 62 to 71% and specificity ranging from 81 to 87%. Similarly, a decrease in rectal temperature measured at 0730 h of ≥ 0.3 °C could predict calving within 24h, with sensitivity from 44 to 69% and specificity from 86 to 88%. Although dairy cows exhibit a distinctive decrease in vaginal and rectal temperatures commencing approximately 48 h before calving, detecting this decrease does not determine the onset of calving precisely. Nevertheless, it can provide valuable information in addition to the traditional signs (i.e., relaxation of the sacrosciatic ligament) that calving is imminent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".