Oceanic and atmospheric extremes motivate a new hypothesis for variable marine survival of <scp>F</scp>raser <scp>R</scp>iver sockeye salmon
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In spite of a relatively optimistic pre‐season forecast, the total return of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) in 2009 was the lowest recorded since quantitative records began in the late 1940s. A plausible mechanism is proposed that links a sequence of extreme oceanic and climatic events to poor marine survival. It began with record‐setting snow packs in the coastal mountain range during the winter of 2007 that led to the development of unprecedented oceanographic conditions in the spring of 2007 from Queen Charlotte Strait in central British Columbia to Southeast Alaska. When combined with equally extreme atmospheric anomalies in the region in the spring of 2007, with a winter wind regime persisting through July, a coastal surface ocean with characteristics that are known to be associated with lower marine survival was established. Most of the sockeye salmon that were expected to return to the Fraser River as adults in 2009 passed through this atypical ocean as juveniles on their migration to the open ocean in 2007. A trophic gauntlet hypothesis is proposed as a new paradigm to describe the oceanic environment faced by sockeye salmon after they emigrate northward from the Strait of Georgia. The hypothesis identifies a new type of high nutrient low chlorophyll region that can explain how oceanographic extremes at critical locations along the migration route beyond the Strait of Georgia can reduce marine survival in some years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".