Anatomy of an Extreme Event: The July 14–15, 2004 Peterborough Rainstorm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The July 14−15, 2004 rainstorm in Peterborough, Ontario, produced the largest 24 hour total rainfall depth (>220 mm) on record for southern Ontario. The storm was localized over the city for much of this period and rainfall depths and peak rainfall intensities dropped markedly with distance from the city. Peak intensity for 0.5 hour duration at the Trent Weather Station (TWS) in the north end of the city was 93 mm h−1, while peak intensity for one hour duration was 87 mm h−1. Even greater intensities may have occurred in other parts of the city. These intensities exceeded the corresponding 100−year return period values (81 and 53 mm h−1, respectively) estimated from the 1971 to 2002 record at the Peterborough Airport (PA) station, southwest of the city. Another critical characteristic of the July 14−15, 2004 storm was the distinctive shape of its intensity−duration−frequency curve relative to that for the PA. The TWS intensities for the July 14−15, 2004 storm showed a more protracted decline with increasing duration compared to the PA 100−year return period values. The storm produced the largest instantaneous peak flow on record for Jackson Creek, which flows through Peterborough's downtown area. Peak rainfall intensities exceeded the infiltration capacities of artificial surfaces as well as many nominally−pervious surfaces in Peterborough and the ensuing surface runoff contributed to widespread flooding in the city. These results strongly suggest that such storm properties, and their influence on surface runoff generation in urban areas, need to be considered when planning engineering structures such as storm sewer networks and storm water retention ponds in the Peterborough region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".