Population dynamics of Caladenia: Bayesian estimates of transition and extinction probabilities
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A disproportionate number of threatened plant species in Australia are found in the genus Caladenia, although little has been published on their life history. Here we examine data from nine species to evaluate some of the basic life-history strategies in Caladenia, specifically the transitions between life-history stages. We constructed life-history transition models of the orchids by using a Bayesian approach, we evaluated the growth rate of populations, compared transition values among species and determined which stage influenced the population growth most. We assessed extinction likelihood and considered the effect of variation in transitions among states on the probability of extinction. Bayesian model selection showed differences between species regarding their life cycle. The probability of individuals flowering in two consecutive years is extremely rare and was found to be common in only one species, C. amoena. All other species had a high likelihood of returning to a vegetative state, and some were likely to enter dormancy after flowering. High elasticities in the transition from the dormant to dormant stage suggest that dormancy has a large impact on population persistence. The quasi-extinction rate suggests that C. rosella, C. clavigera, C. graniticola and C. macroclavia are most at risk when all species have an equal initial population size. Conservation management should focus on studies to identify cues that influence flowering in consecutive years, emergence from dormancy and increasing recruitment.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it