Consistent sets of atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcings on climate for CFC replacements: HCFCs and HFCs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recognition of deleterious effects of chlorine and bromine on ozone and climate over the last several decades has resulted in international accords to halt the production of chlorine‐containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromine‐containing halons. It is well recognized, however, that these chemicals have had important uses to society, particularly as refrigerants, as solvents, as plastic blowing agents, as fire retardants and as aerosol propellants. This has led to an extensive search for substitute chemicals with appropriate properties to be used in place of the CFCs and halons. The purpose of this study is to evaluate in a consistent manner the atmospheric lifetime and radiative forcing on climate for a number of replacement compounds. The unique aspect of this study is its attempt to resolve inconsistencies in previous evaluations of atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcings for these compounds by adopting a uniform approach. Using the latest version of our two‐dimensional chemical‐radiative‐transport model of the global atmosphere, we have determined the atmospheric lifetimes of 28 hydrohalocarbons (HCFCs and HFCs). Through the comparison of the model‐calculated lifetimes with lifetimes derived using a simple scaling method, our study adds to earlier findings that consideration of stratospheric losses is important in determining the lifetimes of gases. Discrepancies were found in the reported lifetimes of several replacement compounds reported in the international assessment of stratospheric ozone published by the World Meteorological Organization [ Granier et al ., 1999] and have been resolved. We have also derived the adjusted and instantaneous radiative forcings for CFC‐11 and 20 other halocarbons using our radiative transfer model. The sensitivity of radiative forcings to the vertical distribution of these gases is investigated in this study and is shown to be significant. The difference in the global radiative forcing arising from the assumption of a constant vertical profile for these gases is found to range from 0 to 36%, with higher difference for short‐lived gases. Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for the compounds are determined using the lifetimes and radiative forcings evaluated in this study and are found to differ from values reported by Granier et al . [1999] owing to the differences in our calculated radiative forcings and lifetimes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".