An Assessment of the Agricultural Trade Impact of Spain's Integration into the EU
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to provide an econometric framework from which to assess the impact on Spanish agricultural trade by the entry of Spain into the European Union. This framework is based on the estimation of a gravity equation. Special attention is paid to the inclusion of dynamics in the gravity equation. To do that, the Kalman filter is used to define the antimonde, that is, the hypothetical situation that would exist without the integration of Spain into the EU. Results show that although Spain joined the EU in 1986, there existed a transition period that lasted until 1990. This result is consistent with the homogenization of agricultural intervention prices during the same period. Empirical results indicate that internal trade creation and external trade diversion are the predominant effects of integration on both imports and exports. L'objectif de cet article est d'illustrer une approche économétrique pour évaluer l'impact de l'adhésion de l'Espagne à la Union Européenne sur le commerce agricole. La méthodologie utilisée est basée sur l'estimation des équations de gravité. Une attention spéciale est portée à la manière d'introduire des effets dynamiques dans ces équations. Sur un autre plan, et au‐delà de l'intérêt des relations dynamiques, le filtre de Kalman est utilisé pour définir l'antimonde, ou la situation hypothétique qu'il doit exister sans que le systéme d'intégration soit mis en œuvre. Les résultats obtenus permettent de confirmer que malgré l'intégration avait lieu en 1986, la période de transition a prolongé jusqu'à 1990. Ce résultat est consistent avec l'homogénéisation des prix d'intervention agricoles dans le même période. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que la création du commerce interne et la diversion du commerce exteme constituent les effets plus prédominants sur l'intégration aussi bien sur les exportations comme sur les importations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".