Will Unconventional Play Revolution Impact Deepwater Development?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Preface This manuscript is intended to set the stage for a panel discussion, "Will Unconventional Play Revolution Impact Deepwater Development?" scheduled for Monday, May 5, 2014. The manuscript includes input from participants of this panel, who are: Panelists: Torstein Hole/Statoil – SVP Development and Production US Onshore Greg Guidry/Shell – EVP Upstream Americas Unconventionals Lee M. Tillman/Marathon Oil Corporation – President and CEO Darrell Hollek/Anadarko – SVP Deepwater Americas Operations and Development David Eyton/BP – Group Head of Technology James A. Slutz/Global Energy Strategies LLC – President Moderators: Doreen Chin/Shell – Surface Advisor, Upstream Unconventional. Chair for OTC 2014 Program Committee Sandeep Khurana/Noble Energy, Inc. – Manager Development Planning Abstract The recent surge in unconventional oil and natural gas production in the United States (US) has been called a "Revolution". Unlocking of massive unconventional reserves in the US is the biggest game changer in recent years. The US is now the number one unconventional oil and gas producer in the world. US together with Canada now accounts for more than twenty-five percent (25%) of global natural gas production. Shale gas will play an ever-increasing role in this resource base and per Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projected to increase to almost half of total US gas production by 2040. Per EIA, US tight oil production will continue to grow till 2020 and is projected to reach almost half of total US oil production. Influenced by the US success, the global unconventional play exploration activities have been active and also increased. This revolution has re-shaped and will continue to shape the energy resource picture for the entire world. For instance, in the US unconventional play investment has also led to resurgence of domestic manufacturing. Though onshore unconventional play development has very different development style (faster pace, cost sensitive, high number of well count, urban planning, etc.) from deepwater development (much higher cost and related risks, fewer wells, long project time, technology intensive, etc.), they have started and will continuously compete in talent recourses, investment flow, and technology supplies, etc. This manuscript discusses supply projections and overlays it with market drivers to portray value proposition. It compares and contrasts unconventional plays and deepwater from a full life cycle of exploration to operations. It discusses implication of regulations and policy. It then summarizes and identifies areas of discussion and viewpoints from panelists.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.126 | 0.026 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".