Improvement of low level bark beetle damage estimates with adaptive cluster sampling
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<ja:p>Detection of low level infestation in forest stands is of principle importance to determine effective control strategies before the attack spread to large areas. Of particular concern is the ongoing mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) epidemic, which has caused approximately 14 million hectares of damage to lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud var. latifolia Engl.) forests in western Canada. At the stand level attacked trees are often difficult to locate and can remain undetected until the infestation has become established beyond a small number of trees. As such, methods are required to detect and characterise low levels of attack prior to infestation expansion, to inform management, and to aid mitigation activities. In this paper, an adaptive cluster sampling approach was applied to very fine-scale (20 cm) digital aerial imagery to locate mountain pine beetle damaged trees at the leading edge of the current infestation. Results indicated a mean number of 7.36 infested trees per hectare with a variance of 18.34. In contrast a non-adaptive approach estimated the mean number of infested trees in the same area to be 61.56 infested trees per hectare with a variance of 41.43. Using a relative efficiency estimator the adaptive cluster sampling approach was found to be over two times more efficient when compared to the non-adaptive approach.</ja:p>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it