Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To validate the BED capture enzyme immunoassay for HIV-1 subtype C and to derive adjustments facilitating estimation of HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional surveys. DESIGN: Laboratory analysis of archived plasma samples collected in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Serial plasma samples from 85 women who seroconverted to HIV-1 during the postpartum year were assayed by BED and used to estimate the window period between seroconversion and the attainment of a specified BED absorbance. HIV-1 incidences for the year prior to recruitment and for the postpartum year were calculated by applying the BED technique to HIV-1-positive samples collected at baseline and at 12 months. RESULTS: The mean window for an absorbance cut-off of 0.8 was 187 days. Among women who were HIV-1 positive at baseline and retested at 12 months, a proportion (epsilon) 5.2% (142/2749) had a BED absorbance < 0.8 at 12 months and were falsely identified as recent seroconverters. Consequently, the estimated BED annual incidence at 12 months postpartum (7.6%) was 2.2 times the contemporary prospective estimate. BED incidence adjusted for epsilon was 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-4.5], close to the 3.4% estimated prospectively. Adjusted BED incidence at baseline was 6.0% (95% CI, 5.2-6.9) and, like the prospective estimates, declined with maternal age. Unadjusted BED incidence estimates were largely independent of age; the pooled estimate was 58% higher than adjusted incidence. CONCLUSION: The BED method can be used in an African setting, but further estimates of epsilon and of the window period are required, using large samples in a variety of circumstances, before its general utility can be gauged.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".